Everyone else is doing it, why not me?
Awards season officially comes to a close on Sunday and with the Guilds officially sown up I figured I might as well post some predictions on them. Probably isn’t going to be all that dissimilar from what a lot of other places are saying with the precursors and all, but this year does feel like the first in a while that there’s an actual race happening at the end. Far as the nominees themselves go, those are all mostly hits too; partially cause of little variation, but there were also just a lot of great movies last year. In the interest of fairness, I’ll try to limit the “Should Be”s to only one mention per movie. I’m skipping the Short categories simply because there’s way too many options and I haven’t seen the nominated ones, but I’m sure you can find one just by searching Vimeo, Criterion Channel, HBO or what have you. So, whaddawe got?
Best Picture
Will Win: One Battle After Another was anointed a frontrunner the minute reviews dropped and so far this season, it’s been a pretty clean sweep. Sinners has been putting up a pretty good fight – especially with SAG – but if a split were to happen it’d go there. I wouldn’t count on it though.
Should Win: One Battle After Another. I mean cahm awwwwwwwn, you don’t really need me to explain it right? Yeah it’d be cool if Sinners won but let’s be real here. It’s the best movie of 2025 and it’s only getting more relevant each day.
Should Be Nominated: Pretty much every nominee in the catagory is a movie I enjoyed or was vaguely pro on with one glaring exception. If they really needed a blockbuster pick and didn’t feel like going with Avatar: Fire and Ash, then why not Weapons? It’s as entertaining if not more so than F1 (a movie I have not seen) and it’s smarter than it appears to be. Maybe Sinners got the horror pick.
Best Director
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson is winning Best Director. He swept every single precursor. It’s his year and he’s been long overdue, and he did a damn good job at it.
Should Win: That being said, wouldn’t it be cool if Ryan Coogler won? Not just because it’s been far too long coming for a Black director, but because he managed to pull it off for the most part. Getting two great musical numbers is more than a lot of people do, that’s for sure.
Should Be Nominated: The one International pick this year went to Joacim Trier for Sentimental Value but it really should’ve gone to one of NEON’s other stables: Jafar Panahi. It Was Just An Accident was one of my favorites of last year and that’s because you could feel the freedom behind the camera. I guess he’ll just have to settle with the Palme D’Or.
Best Actor
Will Win: I honestly have no idea who’s taking it home this year. BAFTA went to a movie that’s not even nominated in this catagory, and Marty Supreme‘s momentum has been lagging for a bit now. Loathe as I am to trust SAG entirely thanks to blowing my predictions two years in a row, I think it Michael B. Jordan has a decent shot. Anyone in this category would be excellent, but his dual roles lept off the screen. Besides, he’s been due a nomination for a while now, and who knows if it’s gonna happen again.
Should Win: But they should just give it to Timothée Chalamet. Say what you will about his campaign, he did the damn thing in Marty Supreme as one of the most annoying men alive with singular focus and drive. I do still think he has a decent shot too so don’t be surprised if he does win but if he doesn’t, can you imagine what the next one is gonna look like?
Should Be Nominated: Seconding Kirsten Dunst’s Instagram posts and grumbling about Jesse Plemmons getting passed over for Bugonia. He has the perfect energy for Yorgos Lanthiamos and better yet, he channels a deeply sad rage behind the deadpan insanity of Teddy Gatz. What gives, Academy?
Best Actress
Will Win: It brings me no pleasure to report this but Jessie Buckley is winning for Hamnet, a movie I thought was perfectly fine but perhaps lean a tad more mixed the more I think back on it. She’s decent enough in it, perhaps underserved by the screenplay, and she’s won every single precursor this entire season. I guess I should be glad it’s not fucking Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (a movie that is not real, I don’t care what people keep saying).
Should Win: Rose Byrne‘s nomination for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is the award itself since as far back as a few months ago it seemed like such a long shot to even get there. But she should be the frontrunner; all of her prodigious abilities are on display, and she’s never anything less than completely mesmerizing on-screen. Call her unsympathetic if you want. It just feels real.
Should Be Nominated: Chase Infiniti being left off annoys me the most, but by far the saddest miss on nomination morning was Amanda Seyfried for The Testament Of Ann Lee. She’s a force to be reckoned with, so dedicated that it might make you believe in God, or at least some higher power. We’ve really been taking her for granted, but thankfully she doesn’t seem too bothered. I think she’ll be back again.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: I guess it’s gonna be Sean Penn now? Benicio Del Toro looked like it was his for a while there, and Stellan Skarsgard is probably the close second if not the winner thanks to vote splitting. But I guess the power of Lockjaw is just too much.
Should Win: If the surge from the BAFTA incident does turn out to be real, let it be known that Delroy Lindo would be a fantastic choice. Delta Slim is a stalwart presence, and yeah it might also be a make-up for Da Five Bloods (or so I’m told). There’s really almost no bad choice in this category again.
Should Be Nominated: Critics – including yours truly – went wild over 28 Years Later (it was an honorable mention on my Film Stage list) for probably all the reasons why general audiences seemingly recoiled from it. Who knows if it would’ve really had enough momentum the whole season but at least this time, Ralph Fiennes was truly a longshot and not a baffling omission. It’s a quintessential performance, and yet deeply surprising all the same.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: The current frontrunner is Amy Madigan for Weapons but I think it might be Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, based on nothing but past BAFTA wins. It may be a close race, Teyana Taylor could sneak in as well. I feel certain that it’s probably not going to be anyone from Sentimental Value just because of the vote split, even though they’re all quite good performances.
Should Win: Amy Madigan would be a great choice honestly. Aunt Gladys is, on the surface, an overly showy character, the kind of thing that lends itself well to drag. But what makes her stick in the mind is the moments of quiet. Was there a more chilling scene last year then when she took off her wig and asked Alex “Do I feel like hurting them?”
Should Be Nominated: I’ve been fairly open about my mixed-to-positive feelings on Hamnet and specifically Jessie Buckley winning. That being said, I do think Emily Watson does a great job in her limited amount of screentime. Probably the definition of a supporting performance and honestly, it’s been a while since she’s been up there. Game has to recognize game, after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Lock for Ryan Coogler and Sinners. He’s leaving there with something tonight, even if it’s just this. Could this be the most an Oscar winning screenplay has talked about cunnilingus? It’s certainly amongst the most entertaining.
Should Win: It Was Just An Accident seemed like it was going to be the Foreign Language pick post-Cannes, and then through a combination of NEON buying everything and people in general not really giving a shit about the Middle East, it fell enough that this could be considered an award itself. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian should win though; not because Iran has suddenly become relevant (though, that could push it honestly) but because it balances the thorny moral conundrum with the humor of his past work. The man was forced to make movies on an iPhone for 10 years, an award is the least they could do.
Should Be Nominated: The best A24-released film of last year is – of course – the one that slipped through the cracks, despite Julia Roberts’ best effort. Eva Victor‘s screenplay for Sorry, Baby is a marvel of tone; quirky without becoming overly precious, heartfelt without dipping into schmaltz, devastating without inducing whiplash. If this is what they can do for a debut, imagine what they can do on a bigger scale.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: I can assure you there has not been an award more certain than Paul Thomas Anderson once again, maybe even if he hadn’t won WGA or a billion other precursors. Yeah, you could’ve said that about Nolan but he missed some of them and anyways he was always going to win one.
Should Win: Apologies to the rest of the category but it should be him. Vineland is a practically unadaptable book like most Pynchon, and the fact that PTA managed to wrangle enough of a skeleton to be recognizable while taking it on his own path should be applauded (even if we didn’t get Leo jumping through a window in a dress wielding a chainsaw, or Regina Hall as a ninja assassin, or the entire Japanese Insurance Adjuster Addicted To Pills). Plus honestly, as much as I love Bugonia the ending still doesn’t work for me. The rest you can take or leave.
Should Be Nominated: Rian Johnson‘s last two Benoit Blanc flicks both got nominated in their respective categories, and it figures that when he goes and makes a fantastic one, it gets shut out. Wake Up Dead Man! featured my favorite scene of the year – as much a product of Bridgett Everett as it is the writing – and honestly, it should’ve been Netflix’s priority. How can you seen Glenn Close giving this performance and not try and push her for Supporting Actress at least???
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Voters still don’t really respect the category if the secret ballots (among others) are to be believed. Besides all that, KPop Demon Hunters was so big Netflix was forced to put it in theaters and they might’ve even gotten an exception on it. Thin as it is on both character and story, the Sony Style hasn’t gotten completely old yet, and the tunes are fun enough to make it better than most kid flicks nowadays.
Should Win: And here’s where I admit I, also, do not take this category very seriously, because I’ve only seen two of the nominees. Arco was one I caught at Philadelphia Film Festival (Little Amelie or the Character of Rain was also there but it sadly didn’t fit into my schedule); NEON was only giving us the dub so who knows if the original language might’ve been better. What I’ll say is it got me teary eyed by the end, and the visual melange comes together in something unique, derivative as it might be.
Should Be Nominated: I honestly don’t know if I saw enough animated features last year to really give an opinion on this – not because I didn’t want to, but mainly cause I don’t think many of the interesting ones got much of a release here and I don’t keep up with the big anime; with apologies to Boys Go To Jupiter, because I had a screener and did not watch it. So do yourself a favor and take a scan of the Shortlist. Almost anything not made by a major studio is probably worth a gander (with the exception of Scarlet, which I’m told from some friends is Bad). Judging by the Croatian entry, East Europe is doing some interesting stuff over there. No idea what all has releases in the US so go sailing for that as you wish.
Best International Feature
Will Win: NEON took 4 out of the 5 slots here and might’ve gotten pretty close to a 5th as well. 2 of those are also nominated in Best Picture and while The Secret Agent feels like it might be surging, the winner is probably going to be Sentimental Value. I do like that one a bit more than the former, and since it’s also got a lot of acting noms plus Director and won BAFTA – along with Joacim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s past nomination for The Worst Person In The World – it seems like a safe enough bet.
Should Win: It Was Just An Accident should’ve been the frontrunner and it should’ve gotten way more nominations but alas, for some reason people here don’t care about Iran unless it’s Asghar Farhadi (France actually submitted this one, because of Panahi’s legal troubles in his home country and because there’s no way the government would ever have approved it). I kind of think it could win it too, but I’m not going to get my hopes up.
Should Be Nominated: As is typical, lotta great submissions in this category, and No Other Choice might’ve made it if for some reason Park Chan-Wook and/or the Country Of South Korea was alienating to the Academy for some unknown reason. They care even less about African film though, which is a goddamn shame because My Father’s Shadow is one of the unsung gems of last year, a devastating tour through memories anchored by three extraordinary performances. Thankfully BAFTAs got this one right, as much as I would’ve wanted Pillion to win everything.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Tempting to say the documentary about Russia will win (Mr. Nobody Against Putin) and it very well might seeing as it won BAFTA. Netflix has gotten a lot of wins in this category, and The Perfect Neighbor is pretty accessible, if not effective and novel in form. Personally that was one of my bigger disappointments of last year, a film that’s admirable in form but might be less than meets the eye, borderline exploitative even. In other words: An Oscar Movie.
Should Win: I grant it’s more traditionally structured as a documentary and a story and not nearly as novel despite also having a unique form. But The Alabama Solution‘s use of contraband cell-phone footage stands out as remarkably urgent, boiling your blood even if you already believe the prison system should be abolished. Of course, I haven’t seen everything in this category either, and it might be I’m being too hard on The Perfect Neighbor. At the very least, you owe yourself a visit to HBO Max to check out The Alabama Solution
Should Be Nominated: Much to my great annoyance, neither of my personal favorites of last year even made the shortlist. I could expect that from Teenage Wasteland – aka Middletown – seeing the status of release, but seriously, did no one see Predators?? Perhaps they too found the scene involving a YouTuber excruciating to watch, or maybe the subject matter of To Catch A Predator put people off. Either way, it should be on Paramount+ and David Osit crafted a near-masterpiece examining not just the culture Chris Hansen wrought, but asking why someone would do this in the first place.
Best Original Score
Will Win: I saw predictions for it all the way back in April and sure enough, Ludwig Gôransson has been cleaning up for Sinners. He’s won twice before – which doesn’t always mean you’re the frontrunner – but there’s worse people to give a threepeat too. Plus that score does slap, the man did the work and it’s great.
Should Win: You don’t have to give it to vague Zionists but it’s been a real long time coming for Johnny Greenwood anyways, and he’d likely have won if his score for There Will Be Blood hadn’t gotten disqualified. Thankfully, his work remains excellent and I can’t imagine that famed River Of Roads sequences working as well as it does without those drums or that piano.
Should Be Nominated: The Academy gave the award to The Social Network back in 2011 and said “Alright, that’s enough electronic music for today”; so much so that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross probably won a second time both because it was more ambient and it was giving Jon Bastiste his first. Which is all to say that there’s absolutely no reason why Oneohtrix Point Never – aka Daniel Lopatin – got passed over for Marty Supreme other than an inexplicable dislike for moderate tempo electro. Hamnet‘s big cue isn’t even original and it still got in but god forbid a previous winner like Daniel Blaumberg try to get a little religious with it.
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Golden” was the number one song in America for quite some time. Everyone’s kids are listening to it. It’s won every single award so far. If it didn’t exist they probably wouldn’t even be doing songs on stage this year. What are you not gonna give it to the big pop hit? It’s a cute enough song, it’s probably going to win a ton of Grammys next year too.
Should Win: Sorry Diane Warren, maybe you should try writing a song both as good as “I Lied To You” from Sinners and also setting it to a scene half as good as the centerpiece Juke Joint Dance. To get a little crackpot, it might have a chance of getting caught up in the sweep of Sinners plus Raphael Saadiq has been around for a long time; Göransson is also on it too though, so perhaps giving him 4 might be too much. Either way, if Nick Cave had been nominated for Hell Or High Water maybe Taylor Sheridan would still be writing good movies instead of keeping linear cable alive.
Should Be Nominated: A lot of songs were in movies last year, I am certain I’m forgetting quite a few. I would also guess that The Testament Of Ann Lee‘s mix of actual Shaker hymns along with original joints is the reason it got passed over even though “Hunger And Thirst” or “All Is Summer” should be up there. So instead I’ll bitch about Challengers being shut out and ask: what does Nine Inch Nails have to do to get another damn award? Yeah, maybe “As Alive As You Need Me to Be” isn’t gonna be at the top of their best and no one gives a shit about Tron but I refuse to believe either the Warren Pick or “Dreams of Joy” are half as good as it. Get it together Hollywood.
Best Sound
Will Win: They sure do love it when Big Car Go Nyooom and even if F1 hadn’t been nominated in Best Picture for God Knows What reason, it’s been the industry frontrunner for a bit. I would imagine those cars are indeed very loud and I’m sure they mixed Brad Pitt’s voice quite well so you could hear it.
Should Win: Unless of course one of the big Warner movies gets it in a sweep (which could happen!) In the interest of not listing the same one over and over again and because I can’t really decide between the two, Sirât would be an inspired choice here. I’m not sure it really adds up to much compared to a lot of critics, but sound is crucial to that film and boy does it work. Just like The Zone Of Interest it missed out on Score. Unlike that film it’s also not really a frontrunner so don’t expect much.
Should Be Nominated: I feel like I might be scraping the barrel a bit here since I don’t really have much to quibble with here. Avatar: Fire and Ash was probably a strong contender here but on a scan of the shortlists I see Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. Surely they had some good airplane and underwater sounds in that but no matter, Tom will be there next year come Digger.
Best Casting
Will Win: New category this year so there isn’t really a lot to go off on. Sinners won the Guild prize and it’ll probably be taking a lot of the below-the-line awards that Frankenstein or OBAA don’t get. It’s a pretty good choice to, the cast is exceptional all the way down, and Miles Catton was a tremendous find. Just about every award here would be good though.
Should Win: As good as the faces in The Secret Agent are and as interesting as it would be, One Battle After Another assembled a fantastic roster of people already in the PTA slate like Alana Haim and interesting picks like Jim Downey on through all the side characters. Cassandra Kulukundis has also been his casting director since Magnolia, and isn’t this where that kind of award should be going? She’s made some banger choices over the years!
Should Be Nominated: Yet again I peruse the Guild casting list and this time, I see that Pillion was nominated in Independent. I do not think that movie ever had a real shot at being nominated for Oscars despite the DGA of it all, howver, isn’t this also the type of thing that should be nominated? Both Harry Melling and Alexander Skårsgard do incredible work, but it’s the side characters that really flesh things out from the initial first date to the motorcycle club. Really I just wanna take this space to shout-out Pillion, now in theaters. One of my favorites of last year!
Best Production Design
Will Win: Frankenstein has been cleaning up in the below the lines as far as the physical aspects of film are concerned, and since it’s a Guillermo Del Toro pick that I’m presuming a lot of people have seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if it cleans up here. Once again, there’s always the chance for a Combination Sinners and OBAA Sweep but it seems like they could cancel each other out a little unless they trade off.
Should Win: Now that’s a real difficult choice ain’t it. All the nominees here are good, but only one is legendary production designer and Mr. Sissy Spacek himself. That’s right, Jack Fisk is nominated for Marty Supreme and he should win, because that’s a damned good 50s design of New York and I can only imagine what they had to do to get that bathtub scene to work. He’s Tha God and it’s been long overdue.
Should Be Nominated: Call it the bias from having so many digital environments even though it still got a Best Costumes nomination. Avatar: Fire and Ash still constructed a ton of physical models and you see every bit of it on screen. It still feels tactile like no other film does and I sincerely hope James Cameron gets to do the exact number of these he wants.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: PTA allegedly took his name of the credit he’s usually had the past couple of times for One Battle After Another because he wanted Michael Bauman to ride the wave. We love a generous king, and I love the cinematography of that movie. If nothing else, give it to him for the shot of Willa closing the door as she’s driving.
Should Win: A woman’s never won this category and there’d be worse options than to get caught up in a Sinners Sweep. Autumn Durald Arkpaw was one of the ones I wrote about in year-end wrap up and she really made great use of those shadows. But like a lot of categories this year, just about anything would be great.
Should Be Nominated: Once again I took a scan of the shortlist and saw Sound Of Falling (Germany’s submission in International Feature). You know what, that’d be kind of inspired! The hazy look is so important to the atmosphere of the film and it moves along like a dream. If it had been nominated in International it’d probably be here. Meanwhile, I believe you can find it on MUBI.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: As mentioned above, Frankenstein has been getting all the physical below the lines of this nature, and with the creature effects it’s a complete shoe-in. Most of the others are longshots but would all be fun choices except for…
Should Win: Sinners, which had those really gnarly vampire effects as well as the period hairstyling and all. It did win a couple Guild prizes so a sweep wouldn’t be a huge shocker. Horror rarely gets its due anyways here and it’d be inspired for something relatively lower key.
Should Be Nominated: I do find it rather funny that Marty Supreme missed out on this while the other Safdie brother film – The Smashing Machine – earned it’s sole award here. Again, there’s way too many options here but frankly, why not? Period hair is a skill too!
Best Costume Design
Will Win: You really want me to repeat myself? Frankenstein, Genre, Period Okay!
Should Win: Rather than talk about Sinners again, let’s celebrate Avatar: Fire And Ash with an inspired nom here for all the physical pieces. Was most of it because of Varaang’s headdress? Yeah probably. Did she still eat? House down boots, mama!
Best Film Editing
Will Win: One Battle After Another is sweeping this so expect this to be one of the big ones as it goes on the path to Best Picture.
Should Win: It’s immaculately edited too, not just the River Of Roads but the entire thing feels so much shorter than its considerable 3 hours.
Should Be Nominated: As many quibbles and ethical concerns as I have with The Perfect Neighbor, I can’t argue it isn’t a well-assembled film and an achievement in itself. Documentaries rarely get in here since it’s so tied to Best Picture but they deserve just as much a shot as everything else.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar has taken these every single time they’ve been up and Fire And Ash is once again a very deserving nominee. Forget all the goofy camera shit and just marvel at how tactile it all feels and how seamless it looks.
Should Win: Avatar: Fire And Ash definitely should, but it could also be Sinners and that’d be real cool too.
Should Be Nominated: It didn’t make the shortlist and really it’s just because it’s on my Movies Fantasy League roster. That said, Predator: Badlands did make a very polite looking Yatuja and also Elle Fanning that was just a torso. Would’ve been cooler than The Lost Bus or something, no shade.
Life of the Mind 